US Stock Market Awaits NVIDIA Earnings - Judgement Day?
Wall Street is holding its breath. After days of brutal sell-offs driven by mounting concerns over artificial intelligence valuations, investors are pinning their hopes—and fears—on a single company’s earnings report due Wednesday afternoon: NVIDIA.
The chipmaking giant will report its fiscal third-quarter results after the market close on November 19, with analysts expecting revenue of approximately $55 billion and earnings per share of $1.25. But in a market where AI-related capital expenditure from tech companies is running at $400 billion annually while the largest AI company, OpenAI, generates just $13 billion in revenue, these numbers represent far more than one company’s quarterly performance.
Stock Markets Teeter on the Edge
Markets steadied Wednesday morning with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.3%, attempting to end their longest losing streak since August. The pause comes after global equities fell for four straight sessions, with the MSCI World Index dropping more than 3% from last week’s highs. Technology stocks have borne the brunt of the correction, with investors suddenly questioning whether the AI boom has inflated valuations to unsustainable levels.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Data suggests the report could trigger a $320 billion swing in NVIDIA’s market value—what would be the largest post-earnings move ever for the company. More critically, NVIDIA’s performance has become a proxy for the entire AI trade, with ripple effects expected across the technology sector and broader market indices.
Adding to the pressure, several high-profile investors have been exiting positions, with Peter Thiel’s hedge fund selling its entire roughly $100 million NVIDIA stake and SoftBank unloading $5.8 billion worth of shares. The moves signal growing unease about AI spending levels, even as companies continue to pour billions into data center infrastructure.
A No-Win Scenario for NVIDIA?
Investment strategists warn of a catch-22 scenario: stronger guidance could amplify worries about overspending, while modest forecasts might signal that growth is normalizing faster than expected. Either outcome could disappoint investors who have bid AI-related stocks to historic heights.
Yet NVIDIA’s track record remains formidable. The company has exceeded analyst earnings estimates in 19 of the past 21 quarters, and demand for its Blackwell chip architecture appears robust. The question is whether meeting—or even beating—expectations will be enough to calm frayed nerves.
Market action Wednesday showed tentative optimism, with the Nasdaq climbing 0.8-1.5% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.5-0.9% as NVIDIA shares rose more than 3% ahead of the announcement. But seasoned observers caution that post-earnings volatility could swing sharply in either direction, with options markets pricing in a potential 7% move.
For now, the entire technology sector—and arguably the broader market rally—awaits its verdict. In an era where one company’s quarterly results can move global markets by hundreds of billions, Wednesday afternoon isn’t just earnings season. It’s judgement day for the AI economy.
