Ninepoint Partners Predicts Major Natural Gas Bull Run
While much of the investment world remains fixated on oil and traditional energy plays, one prominent Canadian asset manager is making a bold contrarian bet: natural gas is poised for a multi-year bull run that could rival some of the most dramatic energy rallies in recent history. Ninepoint Partners, a firm managing over $7 billion in assets, has positioned its flagship energy fund with roughly 60% exposure to natural gas—a remarkable concentration that reflects their conviction that the market is dramatically underpricing the commodity’s future demand trajectory
Who is Ninepoint Partners?
Ninepoint Partners is a Toronto-based alternative investment management firm founded in 2013, specializing in active management across diversified asset classes including energy, precious metals, and alternative strategies. The firm is led by Co-CEOs John Wilson and James Fox, with its Energy Fund managed by Eric Nuttall, one of Canada’s most respected and outspoken energy analysts. Nuttall and his team have built a reputation for making concentrated, high-conviction bets on structural shifts in energy markets, often taking positions that challenge consensus views on Wall Street and Bay Street.
Key Data Supporting the Natural Gas Bull Run
| Metric | Current state | Ninepoint's projection |
|---|---|---|
| AI Query Power Demand | 10x traditional Google search | Driving 20% growth in Texas grid demand by end-2026 |
| Marginal Cost Floor | ~$4.00/MMBtu | Current spot prices ($3.15) are unsustainably low |
| U.S. LNG Export Capacity | ~17 Bcf/d currently | Growing to nearly 20 Bcf/d in 2026 (+3 Bcf/d) |
| Producer Valuations | 12-14% free cash flow yields | Pricing in industry decline, not growth phase |
| Supply Discipline | Producer restraint limiting new projects | Creates "coiled spring" effect for price spike |
The Ninepoint Thesis: Why Natural Gas is Entering a New Era
At the heart of Ninepoint’s conviction lies a fundamental reassessment of natural gas’s role in the global energy transition. The firm argues persuasively that natural gas has evolved from being merely a “bridge fuel”—a temporary stopgap between coal and renewables—into a “critical primary fuel” essential for grid stability in an electrifying world. This paradigm shift is being driven by two powerful and converging forces: the explosive growth of artificial intelligence infrastructure and the continued buildout of liquefied natural gas export capacity.
The AI revolution represents an entirely new category of baseload power demand that few market participants have fully absorbed. Ninepoint highlights compelling data showing that a single AI-driven query consumes approximately ten times the electricity of a traditional Google search. When multiplied across millions of queries and the proliferation of data centers, this creates staggering incremental demand. Their models project that power demand in key regions like Texas’s ERCOT grid could grow by 20% by the end of 2026 alone. Unlike industrial demand that can be curtailed during economic downturns, AI infrastructure represents sticky, 24/7 baseload demand that cannot easily be shut off. This creates what Ninepoint describes as a “demand floor” that fundamentally changes the supply-demand calculus for natural gas.
Simultaneously, the firm points to a critical supply-side dynamic that the market is overlooking. With spot natural gas prices hovering near $3.15/MMBtu—well below the estimated $4.00/MMBtu marginal cost of bringing new supply to market—producers have been forced into capital discipline. New drilling has stagnated, and existing high-cost production is being shut in. Ninepoint views this as a “coiled spring” mechanism: as LNG export facilities ramp up (adding 3 Bcf/d of capacity in 2026 alone) and AI-driven power demand continues surging, the supply cushion will evaporate rapidly. When the market finally recognizes this structural deficit, Ninepoint anticipates a “super-spike” in prices reminiscent of previous energy dislocations. As Senior Portfolio Manager Eric Nuttall bluntly states, current valuations—with gas producers trading at 12-14% free cash flow yields—reflect pricing appropriate for a “dying industry, not one entering a growth phase.” The firm is betting that this disconnect will correct violently as 2026 progresses.
Watch: Ninepoint Partners Explains Their Natural Gas Thesis
Conclusion
Ninepoint Partners’ bullish natural gas thesis represents one of the most concentrated and high-conviction calls in today’s energy markets. Their view that we are entering an “Age of Gas” challenges the conventional wisdom that natural gas is a declining transition fuel, instead positioning it as the essential commodity powering both the AI revolution and global energy security. With the firm’s flagship energy fund tilted heavily toward gas exposure and positioned for what they describe as a “generational entry point,” investors would be wise to monitor whether their predicted supply crunch materializes in the second half of 2026.
As Co-CEO John Wilson noted in January 2026, Ninepoint sees “a clear role for identifying structural shifts that the broader market has yet to fully price in.” Whether their bold call on natural gas proves prescient or premature will likely become clear within the next 12-18 months—but for value investors seeking asymmetric opportunities in energy, the Ninepoint thesis demands serious consideration. The question is not whether AI and LNG will drive incremental gas demand, but whether that demand will arrive fast enough to create the price super-spike Ninepoint is banking on.
References
- Ninepoint Partners’ bullish natural gas thesis – (Ninepoint Partners)
