ASML Reports in Two Days. Here's What to Watch.
ASML releases its Q1 2026 results on April 15, before the market opens. The Dutch chip equipment maker has had a strong start to the year, but headwinds are building. Here is what to expect.
ASML Year-to-Date 2026
ASML shares are up 23.1% year-to-date, while the broader tech sector is down 6.1% over the same period. The stock got a major boost in January after Q4 2025 results came in well above expectations. Net bookings hit €13.2 billion in Q4, versus the €6.8 billion analysts had penciled in. Since then, sentiment has cooled somewhat. Over 1,000 employees walked out at ASML’s Veldhoven headquarters in March to protest the planned elimination of 1,700 jobs. US lawmakers also proposed legislation that could further restrict the company’s sales to China.
What Do Analysts Expect?
Market consensus going into Tuesday’s report is €10.21 billion in revenue and €7.72 in EPS. Analysts project revenue growth of 14 to 15% and EPS growth of 13%, with room for an upside surprise given ASML’s track record of beating estimates. Most major banks remain bullish. Barclays analyst Simon Coles reiterated a Buy and expressed confidence in ASML’s 2026 revenue trajectory. RBC raised its price target to $1,625 with an Outperform rating, pointing to strong order momentum as a foundation for revenue conversion through the year.
The key risk is China. China accounted for roughly 30% of ASML’s revenue in 2025, a figure the company expects to normalize to around 20% in 2026. JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande kept a Buy rating with a €1,515 price target, but warned the proposed US export restrictions could cut earnings per share by up to 10%.
What This Means For Investors
Analysts expect this quarter to confirm the 2026 growth story rather than change it. The numbers matter, but management’s commentary on backlog conversion, order trends, and China exposure will likely drive the market’s reaction. ASML holds a monopoly on EUV lithography, which remains essential for producing the most advanced AI chips. The long-term thesis is intact. The short-term risk is geopolitical, and investors should watch closely what CEO Christophe Fouquet says about the US export restrictions when he takes the call at 15:00 CET.
